Over the past 200 years, western economies have recorded an economic cycle that averages 18.6 years (The shortest on record is 17 years, with the longest being 21 years). Today we explore this cycle and its impact on land, stocks and gold prices – looking at where we currently sit – to help forecast what […]
The 18.6-Year Economic Cycle – What it Means for Land, Stocks and Gold Prices Read More »
The Presidential Cycle is a four-year cycle where the US Stock Market seems to make similar returns in each of the four years. I.e. We compare all the years of the election (2020, 2016, 2012…) and the results seem to align. The most common theory behind the cycle is that there is more spending in
Presidential Cycles and the Markets Read More »
Today’s stock market is nothing short of unusual. The S&P 500 has climbed over 24% to date against a backdrop of strong economic growth and rising interest rates. Despite these factors, the unemployment rate has remained low at 3.7% as of November, and inflation has moderated. To give some context on the current stock market cycle, this
What the last 60 Years of Investing looks like Read More »
“Buy to the sound of cannons, sell to the sound of trumpets.” The above quote, presumably said by the famous banker Nathan Rothschild, is repeatedly quoted when a new conflict pops up. Is it any truth in it? Let’s start by finding out how stocks have performed during conflicts and war. We use the US
How does a war affect the stockmarket? Read More »
The year’s midpoint is a natural time to reflect on how fundamental events have unfolded…. Six months ago, 2023 was expected to witness the most anticipated recession ever, a view strengthened three months ago by three of the four largest bank failures in history. Equity markets have been unfazed by the regional banking crisis, rallying
Are we in a Bear Market rally? Or is a new Bull emerging? Read More »
Whether we like it or not, the technological advancement of generative AI has crossed a threshold from which there is no turning back. Since its release, ChatGPT’s usage have grown faster than any other consumer product in history, showing the insatiable demand for AI assistance. While in the pre-ChatGPT era we often thought of manual-based
How AI will change work Read More »
As many investors have discovered over the last 6 months – you can lose A LOT! SUMMARY Bonds are typically considered safe investments However, there were decades of negative real returns Drawdowns reached 50% for U.S. Treasuries and Bonds INTRODUCTION Inflation greater than 10% was unknown for the majority of people in developed markets before
How much can you lose with Bonds? Read More »
