There is an “unconventional” index that economists and investors use to predict economic downturns. It’s called the Skyscraper Index. Invented by Andrew Lawrence, a property analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, the index was based on a relatively simple idea – that the completion of the world’s tallest building is inevitably a marker for the start […]
The skyscraper index – predictor of market tops? Read More »
Today’s stock market is nothing short of unusual. The S&P 500 has climbed over 24% to date against a backdrop of strong economic growth and rising interest rates. Despite these factors, the unemployment rate has remained low at 3.7% as of November, and inflation has moderated. To give some context on the current stock market cycle, this
What the last 60 Years of Investing looks like Read More »
Shareholder return is the holy metric by which all equities are compared, but what factors actually influence the returns shareholders get from their equity holdings? In October 2023, Morgan Stanley’s Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan put out a paper that offers a framework of the key components that drive shareholder returns. To clearly show
What fundamentals ultimately drive share prices? Read More »
“Buy to the sound of cannons, sell to the sound of trumpets.” The above quote, presumably said by the famous banker Nathan Rothschild, is repeatedly quoted when a new conflict pops up. Is it any truth in it? Let’s start by finding out how stocks have performed during conflicts and war. We use the US
How does a war affect the stockmarket? Read More »
Even though gold is generally a volatile asset, it is often considered a key diversifier, hedging against inflation or protecting during economic uncertainties. Pim van Vliet and Harald Lohre conducted research on this phenomenon – and found that in times of extreme macroeconomic events, including war, hyperinflation, or major economic recessions, gold investing is widely regarded
Combining Gold, Bonds and Low Volatility Stocks Read More »
The year’s midpoint is a natural time to reflect on how fundamental events have unfolded…. Six months ago, 2023 was expected to witness the most anticipated recession ever, a view strengthened three months ago by three of the four largest bank failures in history. Equity markets have been unfazed by the regional banking crisis, rallying
Are we in a Bear Market rally? Or is a new Bull emerging? Read More »
Asset class correlations refer to the degree to which the returns of different asset classes move in relation to each other. A high positive correlation indicates that two asset classes tend to move in the same direction, while a high negative correlation implies that they move in opposite directions. Understanding these correlations can help investors make informed
Asset Class Correlations Read More »
Whether we like it or not, the technological advancement of generative AI has crossed a threshold from which there is no turning back. Since its release, ChatGPT’s usage have grown faster than any other consumer product in history, showing the insatiable demand for AI assistance. While in the pre-ChatGPT era we often thought of manual-based
How AI will change work Read More »
What is Sell in May and Go Away? An investment strategy based on the theory that the stock market underperforms in the six-month period between May and October – Sell in May and Go Away refers to a well-known adage in the business and financial world. Stock markets have previously underperformed in the six-month period
Sell in May and Go Away Read More »
You’ve probably heard investing professionals talk about risk-adjusted returns. This is a way of measuring the performance of an investment that factors in risk—specifically, the extra risk required to get higher returns. The Sharpe ratio is a way to measure the risk-adjusted returns of your investments. What Is the Sharpe Ratio? Investments can be evaluated
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