The skyscraper index – predictor of market tops?

There is an “unconventional” index that economists and investors use to predict economic downturns. It’s called the Skyscraper Index. Invented by Andrew Lawrence, a property analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, the index was based on a relatively simple idea – that the completion of the world’s tallest building is inevitably a marker for the start

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What fundamentals ultimately drive share prices?

Shareholder return is the holy metric by which all equities are compared, but what factors actually influence the returns shareholders get from their equity holdings? In October 2023, Morgan Stanley’s Michael J. Mauboussin and Dan Callahan put out a paper that offers a framework of the key components that drive shareholder returns.  To clearly show

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Combining Gold, Bonds and Low Volatility Stocks

Even though gold is generally a volatile asset, it is often considered a key diversifier, hedging against inflation or protecting during economic uncertainties. Pim van Vliet and Harald Lohre conducted research on this phenomenon – and found that in times of extreme macroeconomic events, including war, hyperinflation, or major economic recessions, gold investing is widely regarded

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Are we in a Bear Market rally? Or is a new Bull emerging?

The year’s midpoint is a natural time to reflect on how fundamental events have unfolded…. Six months ago, 2023 was expected to witness the most anticipated recession ever, a view strengthened three months ago by three of the four largest bank failures in history. Equity markets have been unfazed by the regional banking crisis, rallying

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Asset Class Correlations

Asset class correlations refer to the degree to which the returns of different asset classes move in relation to each other. A high positive correlation indicates that two asset classes tend to move in the same direction, while a high negative correlation implies that they move in opposite directions. Understanding these correlations can help investors make informed

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How AI will change work

Whether we like it or not, the technological advancement of generative AI has crossed a threshold from which there is no turning back.  Since its release, ChatGPT’s usage have grown faster than any other consumer product in history, showing the insatiable demand for AI assistance. While in the pre-ChatGPT era we often thought of manual-based

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Sell in May and Go Away

What is Sell in May and Go Away? An investment strategy based on the theory that the stock market underperforms in the six-month period between May and October – Sell in May and Go Away refers to a well-known adage in the business and financial world. Stock markets have previously underperformed in the six-month period

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